Introduction to Probability Theory

This is the web page for AMS 131 section 1 (spring 2019). The following abbreviations will be used here:

DD = David Draper (Professor; email address *draper@ucsc.edu*), LB = Laura Baracaldo (TA; email address *lbaracal@ucsc.edu*), RG = **Rene** **Gutierrez** (TA; email address **rgutie1***7@ucsc.edu*), XY = **Xingchen (Joe) Yu** (TA; email address **xyu***26@ucsc.edu*), BE = Baskin Engineering, E2 = Engineering 2, JL = Jack's Lounge (on the ground floor of BE: it's the big open area with whiteboards, on the opposite end of the building from the coffee place) , and DS = DeGroot and Schervish (the textbook for the class).

The catalog description for AMS 131 is as follows:

*Introduction to probability theory and its applications. Combinatorial analysis, axioms of probability and independence, random variables (discrete and continuous), joint probability distributions, properties of expectation, Central Limit Theorem, Law of Large Numbers, Markov chains. Students cannot receive credit for this course and course 203 and Computer Engineering 107. Prerequisite(s): course 11B or Economics 11B or Mathematics 11B or 19B or 20B. (General Education Code(s): Q, SR - Statistical Reasoning)*

- (2 Apr 2019) Announcements will be posted in this section. The first Attachment section below will contain scanned PDF copies of the document camera lecture notes and extra lecture notes, as well as case studies and
*R*code; the second Attachment section will contain secure documents, available only by logging into the web page. - (2 Apr 2019) All of the Tue and Thu lectures and the Wed 9.20-10.25am discussion sections will be
**webcast**. To watch a video of one of the lectures or discussion sections, go to*webcast.ucsc.edu*; in the third or fourth row down from the top in the*Webcast Course List*you'll find a row that begins*AMS 131 David Draper*; in the right-most column of that row under the heading*Link*, click on*Video List*; on the page you come to next, in the top yellow box type in the username for this course, which is*ams-131-1*; in the next yellow box type in the password for this course, which is**uncertainty-quantification***Remember me*box has a check mark in it, you won't have to type in the password from now on, as long as you're using the same computer each time); now click on the blue*Login*box and you're at the*Course Webcasts*page. To watch a video just click on it, and then click the relevant symbol on the left just below the video screen: right arrow for watching, left arrow for going back, double vertical line for pause (this is one of the great advantages of webcasts: you can't pause or rewind me in real time in class, but you can pause or rewind the videos as much as you like). - (4 Apr 2019) Office hours for this class,
, will be as follows (please see the list of abbreviations toward the top of this page):**starting on Fri 5 Apr 2019**Day Time Location Who Monday 9-10am BE room 312C/D LB Monday noon-1pm BE room 312C/D XY Tuesday 9-10am E2 room 586 RG Tuesday 7.10-8.40pm E2 room 194 DD Wednesday 8-9am BE room 312C/D LB Thursday 9-10am E2 room 586 RG Thursday 7.10-8.40pm E2 room 194 DD Friday 9.30-10.30am BE room 360 XY - (8 Apr 2019) You can get free tutoring (Modified Supplemental Instruction (MSI)) for this course through Learning Support Services (LSS): our tutor for this class is Michael Beneschan (email address
*mbenesch@ucsc.edu*). The tutoringis as follows (tutoring starts on Mon 8 Apr 2019):**schedule**Day Time Location Monday 10.30-11.30am Porter 246 Monday 4-5pm ARCenter 116 Tuesday 10-11am Oakes Learning Center Wednesday 1.20-2.20pm ARCenter 221 Wednesday 2.30-3.40pm ARCenter 203 Thursday 10-11am Crown 104 **show up at one of the times and places listed above**and Michael will help everybody who's there. - (8 Apr 2019) Our
**official note-takers**this quarter are(EGV below) and**Emmanuel Garcia Vizcarra**(BH below); their notes from the document camera will be posted along with mine.**Barbara Haggerty** - (9 Apr 2019) The
**discussion sections**for the class are as follows:Day Time Location Presenter Wednesday 9.20-10.25am Earth & Marine B214 DD Wednesday 10.40-11.45am Earth & Marine B214 RG Wednesday 2.40-3.45pm Earth & Marine B214 LB Friday noon-1.05pm Earth & Marine B214 RG Friday 1.20-2.25pm Earth & Marine B214 XY Friday 2.40-3.45pm Earth & Marine B214 XY - (24 Apr 2019)
**A cautionary tale**: Click here to read a New York Times article documenting three alarming examples in whichwas used to wrongfully convict people of serious crimes. The depressingly familiar moral of this story is that just because an "expert" says the odds are 1 in a million against anyone other than defendant X having committed the crime doesn't mean that this uncertainty assessment is accurate.**bad data science** - (14 May 2019) Please note the
**important change in time and place for DD's office 1.5-hours**: starting on 14 May 2019 and for the rest of the quarter, they will be from**7.10pm to 8.40pm in E2 room 194**.